Document Type: Monitoring and Evaluation

Economic theory has long held that when farmers and other landholders have secure rights to their land and trees, they are more likely to invest in long-term sustainable practices, like agroforestry (Acemoglu and Robinson 2012). Agroforestry practices, in turn, help restore soil fertility, control erosion, improve agricultural productivity, and potentially improve farmers’ livelihoods, while sequestering carbon and strengthening farmers’ resilience to climate-related stresses (Castle et. al. 2021; Branca et. al. 2021). While the hypothesized links between land rights strengthening and agroforestry adoption seem clear, in practice, the evidence for these linkages has been mixed, and varies across contexts.

Finding ways to encourage more farmers to adopt agroforestry has been a decades-long challenge. More than 30 years of research on determinants of agroforestry adoption that span a wide range of developing countries has highlighted several important factors that relate to greater adoption in particular contexts. Strengthening farmers’ security over their land (land tenure security) is among the most commonly hypothesized strategies (interventions) for which several studies have offered glimmers of hope, but evidence on its effectiveness has remained low overall (Meijer et. al. 2015; Castle et. al. 2021). This is partly because few studies have rigorously examined the extent to which strengthening farmers’ land rights leads to greater agroforestry adoption. As a result, policy and program decision-makers continue to look for strategies that can effectively strengthen farmers’ land rights and associated benefits, while also leading to widespread and sustained agroforestry adoption on farms.

To help inform this knowledge gap, USAID’s Tenure and Global Climate Change (TGCC) activity in Zambia was designed to test whether improving farmers’ land tenure security and governance also incentivizes them to adopt agroforestry as a means to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change (in addition to increasing women’s empowerment and a host of other important development outcomes). To do so, the activity paired a series of land tenure activities, including issuing customary land certificates to customary land owners and establishing village land committees, with agroforestry extension services. A randomized control trial (RCT) impact evaluation assessed the impacts of the TGCC program individually and across its different intervention components: land tenure, agroforestry, and combined (land tenure + agroforestry) programming.

This policy brief summarizes the impact evaluation’s findings and further unpacks key aspects of agroforestry results across the two main agroforestry species that TGCC promoted: Faidherbia albidi (Musangu) and Gliricidia sepium (Gliricidia). This brief provides evidence-based insights for Zambian and other policy makers on important linkages between land tenure strengthening and promoting agroforestry, from a context of rural customary land and smallholder agriculture characterized by low soil fertility and crop productivity and high levels of poverty and climate variability. The brief also highlights clear and practical implications for future programming to achieve integrated land tenure, livelihoods, and climate objectives via agroforestry or other natural climate solutions in similar programming contexts.

USAID and PepsiCo support to the partnership is channeled through the Integrated Land and Resource Governance (ILRG) program, implemented by Tetra Tech and Landesa. As part of this partnership, the ILRG team has developed this monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) plan to track progress and capture lessons learned through the partnership. The purpose of the MEL plan is to describe the overall project purpose (Section 1), identify data that will be used and describe how it will be analyzed to make the business case for women’s empowerment within the PepsiCo potato supply chain (Section 2), and describe the indicators and the data collection processes that will be used to demonstrate women’s empowerment outcomes and identify changes in PepsiCo KPIs and SFP adoption.

The MEL plan includes PepsiCo KPIs, as well as standardized performance indicators used by the United States government (USG) to report on USAID investments across the world (Section 3). Some, but not all, of these USAID indicators will be used to support the business case for women’s empowerment to PepsiCo and to demonstrate the effects and impacts of women’s empowerment on PepsiCo KPIs. In addition, some indicators are included because they flow down from the ILRG global MEL plan, or correspond to USAID global objectives with regard to land tenure. Standards and safeguards used to ensure data quality and integrity are described in Section 4.

Both qualitative and quantitative data collection approaches and analyses are required to determine the extent to which changes in women’s empowerment affect PepsiCo’s bottom line, and to inform the overall project approach to collaborating, learning, and adapting (CLA) (Section 5). Due to the innovative nature of the partnership, it is critical to collect and analyze data frequently to determine when course corrections are needed, and to determine the efficacy of approaches to increase women’s empowerment. A robust learning agenda (Section 5.2) is particularly important to document lessons learned, identify best practices, and facilitate adapting approaches and tactics as needed.

Detailed indicator descriptions are included in performance indicator reference sheets (PIRSs) in Annex 1, and data collection forms are included in Annex 2.

The primary objective of the Integrated Land and Resource Governance (ILRG) task order under the Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights II (STARR II) Indefinite Quantity/Indefinite Delivery (IDIQ) contract is to assist the Land and Resource Governance Office under the Development, Democracy, and Innovation Bureau’s Environment, Energy, and Infrastructure Center to design and implement activities that improve land and resource governance, strengthen property rights, and build resilient livelihoods as the foundation for strong economic growth, stability, and resilience. Strong land and resource governance is important within the broader context of reaching myriad United States Agency for International Development (USAID) goals. In particular, successful implementation of this task order will enable USAID to contribute to the following four broad objectives that assist in ending extreme poverty:

1. Increase inclusive economic growth, resilience, and food security;
2. Provide a critical foundation for sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation;
3. Promote good governance, conflict mitigation, and disaster mitigation and relief; and
4. Empower women and other vulnerable populations.

The task order is currently implementing ILRG activities in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, India, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. Since the original monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) plan was approved, completion tasks were approved for work in Ghana, Liberia, Madagascar, and DRC, so corresponding MEL information has been added for these activities. A completion task MEL plan for India has also been approved. ILRG received Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) funding through the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative, which focuses on Ghana, India, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia; a MEL plan for WEE-funded initiatives was also approved. Indicators from the India MEL plan and the WEE MEL plan are included within this MEL Plan for a comprehensive view of all MEL indicators. Performance indicator reference sheets (PIRSs) which come from the India or WEE MEL plan are noted at the top of the PIRS. Any future MEL revisions/updates for new countries or initiatives are expected to start with revisions to this global plan.

The Complexity-Aware Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (CAMEL) Plan is a critical management tool designed to measure progress and assist the implementation of the Improving Land Access for Women (ILAW) Activity. This plan outlines ILAW’s approach to data collection, management, analysis, and reporting of a selection of output- and outcome-level performance indicators. The plan also includes ILAW’s complexity-aware approach to strategic collaboration, continuous learning, and adaptive management (CLA) to obtain feedback from partners and stakeholders, monitor changing conditions in the country, review and discuss successes and challenges, and apply lessons learned to upcoming activities and correct course when necessary.

The CAMEL Plan is a living document, which the ILAW team will update during work planning to reflect continuous learning, with the concurrence of the Task Order Contracting Officer (TOCO). The plan centers on two core concepts:

• Complexity-Aware Monitoring (CAM). ILAW takes a complexity-aware approach to monitoring and evaluation (M&E), recognizing that continuous information about changing conditions is critical for successful adaptive management. ILAW will supplement traditional performance monitoring with CAM methods to understand and adapt to changing conditions, measure unintended consequences, and improve knowledge of the cause-and-effect relationships inherent to influencing social change.
• Do No Harm. Existing evidence suggests that specifically supporting only women could have the unintended effect of increasing the risk of women losing their land or of gender-based violence (GBV). In addition, Côte d’Ivoire’s socio-political dynamics related to land are highly sensitive, especially in the Western regions where land-based conflicts are cited as a key driver of violence. The ILAW Chief of Party (COP) and Gender Specialist will train all staff and partners on do no harm principles and integrated into weekly reporting and meetings discussion of specific risks related to social conflicts and GBV. Senior ILAW staff and field partners will instruct field agents to inform supervisors immediately in case of acute risks or threats. Field partners will liaise with the national office and local authorities as appropriate, and ILAW staff will liaise with USAID. Table 1 below shows an indicative list of risks as well as mitigation measures.

Abstract 

This impact evaluation examined USAID’s Land Tenure Assistance (LTA) activity, which was implemented in Iringa District, Tanzania from 2015 to 2019. LTA assisted in land use planning and delivering formalized documentation of customary rights to village residents, known as Certificates of Customary Rights of Occupancy (CCROs), through the use of the Mobile Application to Secure Tenure application. The evaluation randomized treatment assignment across 60 villages, with half receiving LTA’s activities. The five evaluation questions cover the following household outcomes: documentation and tenure security, land disputes, land use and investment, empowerment, and economic wellbeing.

The evaluation team conducted data collection via a panel survey of 1,361 households over three stages (two baseline phases, an interim midline phase for a subset of households, and an endline phase). The evaluation found that within three years of CCRO receipt, LTA had a large and significant positive impact on household tenure security and documentation of land rights, reduced the likelihood of current and future land disputes, and had a smaller positive impact on use of communal land. LTA did not appear to impact the likelihood of fallowing, crop diversification, household land investments, access to credit, or other indicators of household economic wellbeing during that timeframe. Qualitatively, results suggested tangible and important improvements to women’s empowerment, including women’s increased access to land resources and tenure security. The evaluation results help confirm aspects of LTA’s theory of change and align with literature on the impacts of customary land rights formalization on tenure security and other shorter-term outcomes along the envisioned causal pathways. However, the results also highlight a need to revisit expectations for the time required to achieve downstream impacts in rural smallholder settings as a result of customary land formalization on its own. The lack of downstream impacts related to land investments, agricultural productivity, diversification, and broader economic wellbeing highlight the need for USAID to consider coupling or synchronizing future CCRO provisioning programs with agricultural extension and market linkages support to villagers within identified value chains, and financial literacy, financial services, and business development support, once CCROs are obtained.

Executive Summary

This report presents results of an impact evaluation (IE) of the Feed the Future Tanzania Land Tenure Assistance (LTA) activity. The Office of Land and Urban in the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Economic Growth, Education, and Environment (USAID/E3) commissioned the evaluation. The evaluation used a two-phase randomized controlled trial design to rigorously test how mobile mapping and facilitation of formalized customary land tenure certification affect household tenure security, land disputes, investment, women’s empowerment, longer-term economic wellbeing, and related land use and management issues in Iringa District, Tanzania. This report provides impact estimates at endline on key indicators and descriptive qualitative findings related to five evaluation questions, two to two-and-a-half years after household land mapping and receipt of formalized customary land documentation via Certificates of Customary Right of Occupancy (CCROs).

LTA Activity Description

In recent decades, Tanzania and many other countries across sub-Saharan Africa have undertaken substantial land reforms to formalize customary land rights for village residents, aiming to improve tenure security and unlock economic opportunities for the rural poor. The Tanzanian land rights system is based on public ownership of land, wherein all land is owned by the state and held in trust by the president. Individuals who use or occupy village land have the right to obtain formal documentation of their customary land use rights via a legally valid and transferrable CCRO, which is issued by the local government. However, factors such as insufficient capacity of district land offices (DLOs) to assist villages with land use planning or issue CCROs, villagers’ unfamiliarity with formal land laws, and lack of funds to pay CCRO fees have resulted in few villagers obtaining formal documentation of their land rights and CCROs for their plots. Increasingly, the Government of Tanzania and the donor community recognize that improving the security of land rights is essential to protecting the rights of smallholders, reducing land disputes, and maximizing the region’s economic potential.

USAID/Tanzania awarded the four-year, $6 million LTA activity to DAI in December 2015. The activity sought to clarify and document land ownership, support local land use planning efforts, and increase local understanding of land use and land rights in Tanzania. LTA assisted villages and the DLOs in Iringa and Mbeya districts in completing the land use planning process and delivering CCROs in select villages. It also provided education on land laws, CCROs, and land management. LTA used the Mobile Application to Secure Tenure (MAST), a USAID-developed app and approach that facilitates the land mapping and customary land formalization process. The 2015-2019 phase of LTA in Iringa District was implemented in 36 villages, 6 of which were chosen for initial implementation and an additional 30 were part of this evaluation. According to LTA implementation tracking data, the activity registered 59,354 CCROs in Iringa District villages during that time, of which 51,222 CCROs were collected by 26,436 individual claimants.

Overview of the ILRG W-GDP Activity

Purpose

The primary objective of the Integrated Land and Resource Governance (ILRG) task order under the Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights II (STARR II) Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract is to assist the Land and Urban Office in the Bureau for Economic Growth, Education, and Environment (E3/LU) to design and implement activities that improve land and resource governance, strengthen property rights, and build resilient livelihoods as the foundation for strong economic growth, stability, and resilience. Strong land and resource governance is important within the broader context of reaching multiple United States Agency for International Development (USAID) goals. In particular, successful implementation of this task order will enable USAID to contribute to the following four broad objectives that assist in ending extreme poverty:

1. Increase inclusive economic growth, resilience, and food security
2. Provide a critical foundation for sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation
3. Promote good governance, conflict mitigation, and disaster mitigation and relief
4. Empower women and other vulnerable populations

The task order is currently designed to implement ILRG activities in multiple countries around the world using a variety of funding sources. This monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) plan addresses the Women’s Global Development Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative-funded activities in Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, and India, as well as an emerging partnership with a private sector cocoa company. The MEL plan will be adapted to address any additional countries, as well as global interventions.

Near the end of FY 2019, ILRG was informed that it would receive W-GDP funding related with the aim of implementing women’s empowerment and gender equality activities in existing and new ILRG geographies over approximately two years. This MEL plan describes the indicators to be used to track impacts of project activities, how data will be collected and how learning can inform program implementation. The ILRG W-GDP task aims to contribute to the three W-GDP pillars:

• Pillar 1: Women prospering in the workforce;
• Pillar 2: Women succeeding as entrepreneurs; and
• Pillar 3: Women enabled in the economy.

The ILRG W-GDP task will particularly work to support women’s empowerment by contributing to Pillars 2 and 3. This MEL plan also recognizes the importance of coordinating with USAID’s Communications, Evidence and Learning (CEL) program, which will be undertaking W-GDP-funded activities in some overlapping geographies. All indicators in this MEL plan are also included in the broader ILRG MEL plan.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides baseline context for the mixed-methods impact evaluation (IE) of the “Supporting Deforestation-Free Cocoa in Ghana” project Bridge Phase activity that has been commissioned by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Office of Land and Urban in the Bureau for Economic Growth, Education, and Environment (USAID/E3/LU). The evaluation aims to provide an evidence base for outcomes of the Bridge Phase activities with respect to strengthening land rights and land governance, reducing deforestation, increasing carbon sequestration and cocoa productivity, and enhancing local livelihoods. The evaluation is led by NORC at the University of Chicago, under the Communications, Evidence and Learning (CEL) Project.

This document provides findings from the baseline data collection for the evaluation, including background context on key demographics, household characteristics, and baseline measures on outcome variables. The report also examines balance across Bridge Phase and comparison group villages for the IE components of the evaluation, revisits power calculations from the Evaluation Design Report (EDR) using parameters from the baseline data, and provides an update on the viability of evaluating the farm rehabilitation component of the Bridge Phase activity, given a reduction in the number of beneficiaries receiving this intervention as learned at baseline.

BRIDGE PHASE ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION

The Integrated Land and Resource Governance (ILRG) Task Order under the Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights II (STARR II) Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ), is supporting work on sustainability of deforestation-free cocoa through the “Supporting Deforestation-Free Cocoa in Ghana” (SDFC) project Bridge Phase. The ILRG program is implemented by an international consortium including the prime contractor, Tetra Tech, and core subcontractors, including Winrock.

The ILRG activity seeks to refine three interventions through a “Bridge Phase” period, and then scale up a financially viable farm rehabilitation and land tenure strengthening model for the Ghanaian cocoa sector. In combination with land use planning, the scaled activity aims to result in: reduced deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased carbon sequestration in the cocoa landscape, increased cocoa farm productivity and resilience, diversified farmer incomes, and improved livelihoods. Implementation of the Bridge Phase is through a partnership across ILRG and three private sector partners: Ecom Agroindustrial Corp. (ECOM), the Hershey Company (Hershey), and Meridia. The Bridge Phase activity has three intervention components: (1) cocoa farm rehabilitation led by ECOM that is provided to a small group of registered farmers; (2) farm mapping and provisioning of tenure documentation to all interested farmers in the four Bridge Phase communities; and (3) landscape governance and land use planning activities implemented at village and district levels.

EVALUATION QUESTIONS

Table 1 lists the six questions addressed by the SDFC Bridge Phase evaluation. The evaluation questions, which the team developed in collaboration with USAID, focus on meeting USAID’s priority learning interests for this activity and were derived from the SDFC Bridge Phase theory of change.